Friday, November 29, 2002

Thanksgiving 2002

It's Thanksgiving - a nice pause to appreciate our abundance and celebrate our community and spend the day preparing the ingredients for the awesome Friday-after- Thanksgiving sandwiches that I lust after all the rest of the year.

I know I'm on record as thinking that the Dow would hit 9000 by Thanksgiving. Came pretty close, as the Dow finished at 8931 after a day that was impressive in lots of "technical" ways in addition to posting a hefty 255 point advance. But check this out - tomorrow, Friday, the market closes early, at 1PM (EST) Normally, one would expect that many of the big money guys aren't supposed to be around and that things should be lackluster. But consider this - the last time this setup happened - this past July 4th, which occured on a Thursday with a short Friday following, the Dow went up 324 points, partly in relief that we had made it rhrough the holiday with no terrorism. I'm not sure if terrorism against Israelis counts or not - but it is very conceivable that Friday could be the day. And of course there I went and jinxed it. LOL

On the plus side, Wednesday's action closed virtually at the top of the daily range - bulls in control on good economic news. If the bulls remain in control when the market opens Friday, it could spook the shorts sellers, which will induce them to buy to cover themselves, which creates demand, which pushes prices up. And, especially at a market turn such as now, there will be a certain pressure on money managers to jump in lest one miss the big market movement - which also creates demand, which also pushes prices up. So all this can feed on itself and build a self-feeding momentum. And if Friday, there are no huge blocks of shares available for sale because of the holiday, it could have a dramatic imapct on short term upward price movement, and just as on July 5, prices could soar. We're only 145 points away from the August high of 9077. That's only 1.6% which is certainly doable.

And I could close this with something cheesy such as "and boy wouldn't *that* gives us something to be thankful for" - But I won't.