Tuesday, September 24, 2002

Re-testing the July lows

It is normal for a stock or an index, once it hits a low, to rise a bit, and then "re-test" that low a few weeks later. If, once it hits that low and then bounces back up, a support level is created and generally a new and strong uptrend is created. A successful "test of the low" can occur anywhere within 5% of the previous low. In other words, since the July low was 7532, 5% below that would be in the 7130 range. We can expect the market to drop as low as that and still have a good chance of taking off into an uptrend. On the other hand, breaking below that point will signal a new downleg.

So the 2 numbers to watch for in the next few days are the July low - 7532 and 5% below that - 7130.
Why "Andy X"?

When I first started posting to blogs, I just used the name "Andy". Unfortunately, that name has become synonymous with someone else named "Andy" with whom I do not wish to be associated. So while my name is Andy, the X, I guess, signifies that I am NOT the other Andy. The "un-Andy" as it were, except that I'm really an "Andy". And no, since I am not a professional journalist, I have neither desire nor need to share my fairly distinctive last name with the hoi polloi. Not in Mr. Bush's America, thankyouverymuch. Not with the kind of views that I have and the stuff that I will probably write and the number of crazies out there making the world safe from evil "libruls". My address is in the phone book, forgawdssakes. Nuff said bout that.
Well, the Fed didn't raise rates - and sure enough, within minutes all the indicies headed south on the news. Buncha babies. My portfolio is hanging in there, but solely because of the steller earnings announcement by Marvel - which at last has a full quarter of Spiderman revenues to boost things. Marvel "raised guidance" (announced that they expected revenues for the next quarter and year to be higher than previously thought), which Wall Street just loves, and so far for the day we're up 13% (which is great considering that everything else I hold right now is pretty much in the crapper). So we're going to have to find a different catalyst to give Wall Street the jolt it needs. Go Spiderman!
I recently discovered the stock market, and have become very big on "technical analysis" - reading the charts and discerning future price trends based upon previous price movements. According to technical analysis, the market is currently "undersold" - meaning, all things being equal, it should bias towards moving up. (Think of walking down the middle of a street with a dog on a leash. The dog moves back and forth side to side, but is always constrained by the leash. When it is all the way too far to one side, it may stay to that side, but chances are it will move back toward the middle. Same with stocks.) There's lots of technical things in place to see a nice rebound off of this point, setting up a classic "Double Bottom" (tieing in price levels now with the lows reached in July) which can be the start of a meaningful upmove. However, with the threat of war and terrorism, not to mention the uncertainty raised by the corporate accounting and brokerage scandals this year, there are a whole bunch of other extraneous factors which will affect stocks right now than the technical stuff. However, the market is like a kid at Christmas when it comes to Fed cuts. If the Fed cuts today, or gives the indication that it will cut in the future, I would expect a very nice bounce based upon the technical position of the market right now. Whether that bounce will be good for short or long term will have to do with things like WAR, unfortunately.

In the past 15 minutes, my personal portfolio has risen over 1% as the market rises in anticipation of a cut. If it doesn't happen, or they don't say any language indicating one may be in the offing in the future, then expect those babies to go into a huge sulk. With a lot of the market, it's *all* about expectations.
Well, this is going to be my blog.
I didn't think that I would do my own blog - I am more comfortable in a reactive than in a proactive mode - and I am highly undisciplined enough that the thought of doing this on a daily basis seems like a lot of, well, for lack of any better word, work. And I'm insecure enough to seriously doubt that anyone out there really cares what I think, nevermind believe that my thoughts actually carry any weight or authority....

But I've been enjoying hanging out in the kitchens of some in the blogosphere who I really admire (I'll get around to naming names and posting links sometime), and someone the other day pointed out that criticism of what others write on blogs without attaching a link to your own blog seems to be a problem of some sort. Names were being taken; I assume some "secret lists" were being kept (I *love* secret lists - I wanna be on as many as possible!). So, anyway I'm thinking that I might as well set up a blog so that I can engage in give-and-take without others thinking that I am overstepping any rules. While I still hope to hang out in the kitchens of those that I like, I hope at some point to make my own kitchen comfy and interesting enough to hang out in some too.

My interests which I hope to address in this blog include politics, history, economics, the stock market, social equality, law (member of the VA Bar - guilty as charged), incredibly shallow reality TV shows, and my ongoing love/hate relationship with Major League Baseball as it is currently being run into the ground by that used car salesman masquerading as "Commissioner".

I have a busy week planned, as well as, hopefully, a rare weekend getaway, so if you come to visit (Hi! Thanks for stopping by!) I don't expect to put up a whole lot of content right away.

Sunday, September 22, 2002

Alrighty then...